📊 National Key Indicators
Mar 2026 Housing Starts
1.50M
▲ 10.8% MoM · ▲ 10.8% YoY
Strong rebound; likely one-month blip
Single-Family Starts
1.03M
▲ 9.7% MoM · ▲ 8.9% YoY
13-month high (Feb 2025 level)
Multifamily Starts
446K
▲ 9.6% MoM · ▲ 13.5% YoY
Continued apartment sector strength
Mar 2026 Permits
1.37M
▼ 10.8% MoM · ▼ 7.4% YoY
Signals pipeline softening ahead
Mar 2026 Construction Spend
$2.19T
▲ 0.6% MoM · ▲ 1.6% YoY
Private residential ▲ 1.7% MoM
Housing Completions
1.37M
▲ 0.1% MoM · ▼ 12.8% YoY
Delivery gap vs. year-ago persists
Builder Sentiment (HMI)
40
Neutral = 50 · Apr 2026
Subdued; tariff + rate uncertainty
SF Permits YoY
▼7.9%
Mar 2026 vs. Mar 2025
Forward pipeline weakening
Materials Cost vs 2024
+6.0%
Total project costs +3%
Cushman & Wakefield · Apr 2026
Input Price Growth YTD
12.6%
Annualized · Jan-Feb 2026
Fastest since early 2022
Steel/Alum Tariff
50%
Steel +20.7% · Al +33% YoY
Derivatives: 25% · Cu +25% YoY
MF Permits MoM Drop
▼23.5%
Mar 2026: 427K units
Volatile; biggest MoM drop in cycle
📈 Starts & Permits National Trends — March 2026
Housing Starts by Type — Recent Months
Single-family vs. multifamily · Jan–Mar 2026 (SAAR, thousands)
Regional Starts & Permits Change (Mar 2026 MoM)
By U.S. Census region · Percentage change month-over-month
🏗️ State-Level Building Permits — March 2026 (NSA)
Single-Family vs. Multifamily Permits by State — Mar 2026 (NSA)
CAA core states · All values in units (NSA monthly, partial estimate for MF)
🧱 Builder Sentiment & Labor Market
NAHB Housing Market Index — April 2026
By region (3-month average) · 50 = neutral threshold
40
National HMI · Apr 2026
Neutral: 50
Construction Labor Market — February 2026
Employment and labor conditions · AGC / JEC data
-60K
Jobs Lost YTD
vs. Dec 2024 · home bldg
-11K
Jobs Lost Feb
Both res. & nonres.
+0.5%
YoY Growth
Outpacing broader econ
~33%
Foreign-Born
Immigration risk factor
📌 Construction employment dipped 11,000 in February (AGC). 60,000 fewer home construction jobs vs. Dec 2024 (JEC). ~1/3 of construction workforce is foreign-born — immigration enforcement is a supply-side risk. Workers staying put amid uncertainty.
🗺️ CAA State Snapshots
🐻 California
SF Permits Mar 2026 (NSA)5,196 ▲ vs 4,362 Feb
LA Wildfire Rebuilding3,100+ permits issued
IE Industrial Leasing Q113.6M SF ▲ 40.2% QoQ
IE Industrial Vacancy7.8% (▲ 70bps, oversupply)
OC Office Vacancy11.3% (below natl avg)
The Carina (Santa Ana)$144M loan · 408 units
West Region HMI31 (lowest)
🍑 Georgia
ATL MSA Permits Mar 20262,705 ▼ vs 2,831 Feb
Metro ATL Q1 20264,320 permits ▼ 13% YTD
Hall County (bright spot)449 permits ▲ 25% YTD
Barrow County (standout)289 permits ▲ 42% YTD
1072 W Peachtree Tower60-story · opening 2026
GA Industrial Investment$26.3B · #1 state biz 12yr
South HMI35 (below neutral)
🏔️ Colorado
Pikes Peak SF Permits YTD~440 SF · 50 townhomes
Denver Apt VacancyMulti-yr high · rents ▼ 4.8%
HOME Act (HB26-1001)Signed Mar 2026
Swire Coca-Cola Plant$475M · Colo Springs
Catalyst Industrial188K SF completed Apr 28
Centerra Ave South140-acre MXD · broke ground
West HMI31 (lowest region)
🎰 Nevada
State Permits Mar 2026 (NSA)1,500 ▲ vs 948 Feb
LV MSA Permits Mar 2026884 ▲ vs 762 Feb
Hard Rock Guitar Hotel$4.3B · 36/42 floors up
A's Las Vegas Stadium$2B · vertical active
N. NV Industrial Vacancy~11% · construction ▼ 82%
Data Center Reg. Risk2027 restrictions proposed
West HMI31 (weakest region)
🏢 Office-to-Apartment Conversion Pipeline
Conversion Units by City — CAA Markets
OC leads CA with 3x LA’s conversion pipeline · Active spring 2026
Office-to-apartment conversions up 28% YoY nationally. Change-of-use permits are more complex than standard residential — expect increased plan-review demand in urban markets.
Construction Spending Snapshot — March 2026
MoM change by category · Total SAAR $2,185.5B (+1.6% YoY)
⚠️ Market Risk Factors
Tariff Cost Crisis — Materials +6% vs. 2024 Baseline (Cushman & Wakefield, Apr 8, 2026)
50% tariff on steel & aluminum · 25% on derivatives · 15% on industrial/electrical equipment ·
Steel mill products +20.7% YoY · Aluminum shapes +33% YoY · Copper +25% YoY ·
Input prices running at 12.6% annualized pace Jan-Feb 2026 · Total project costs up ~3% vs. 2024 ·
Est. $17,500 added cost per new home · Could suppress 450,000 units through 2030 (Brookings) ·
Permit revision + phased submittal activity expected to increase as projects reprice mid-construction
🏛️ CAA Business Implications
| Theme | Data Point | Impact Level | CAA Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF starts declining; permits weakening | SF starts ▼6.5% YoY; Jan permits ▼5.8% YoY | High | Near-term residential permit volumes likely to soften in most client cities |
| Multifamily rebound | MF starts ▲29.1% MoM in Jan 2026; built-for-rent dominant | Medium | Apartment plan-review workload growing in GA, SoCal, Las Vegas markets |
| Denver entitlement-to-permit gap | Only 14–22% of approved MF projects start; 22,600+ units at risk | High | Do not forecast Denver permit volume from approvals alone — financing gap is real |
| Georgia industrial boom | $2B UCB pharma plant; Amazon + Yamaha + 1M SF AI warehouse | Positive | Significant industrial inspection workload building in metro Atlanta municipalities |
| Nevada data center regulation debate | 60+ data centers; community opposition emerging; no action yet | Medium | Storey, Washoe, Clark County building depts may face new regulatory frameworks |
| Tariff-driven cost escalation | Materials +6% vs. 2024; total project costs +3%; inputs ▲12.6% ann. | High | Project delays, permit revisions, phased submittals — variable workload spikes across all states |
| SoCal industrial recovery | LA vacancy 5.2% vs 6.7% national; capital returning; 2027-28 pipeline | Positive | Complex MEP/warehouse/data center permits expected to ramp in IE + LA County |